korean unification studies

There are a multitude of scenarios put forward by analysts of how North Korea will be ruled after Kim Jong-Il. These include hereditary succession, military council or disintegration. One aspect that recurs in many of these studies is the importance of external support, namely Chinese support, to the success of any resulting regime.

The assumption that China will play a central role is based on: 

• Chinese historical and cultural influence;
• China’s capacity to provide material and moral support to succession contenders;
• China’s influence over prominent succession contenders;
• China’s national interest in a stable buffer state (and third country recognition of this); and
• China’s increasing economic influence over, and increasing economic activity in, North Korea.

However, historical precedent suggests that while China may have a strong early influence over choosing the nature of a post-Kim Jong-Il regime, its influence may not last.

Ex-Soviet and Soviet satellite states are amongst the most pro-US states in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The attitudes of populations that have experienced authoritarianism, and then tasted freedom, turn sharply against authoritarianism.

An interesting comparison is Ukraine. Ukraine is sharply divided between those who support western style reform and closer connections to the west, and those who support retaining the age old authoritarian tinged ties with Russia. As the economy develops, more are attracted to closer ties with the west and greater individual freedoms.

But can the examples of Eastern Europe and Central Asia be readily applied to a post-Kim Jong-Il Korea? There are a multitude of differences that distinguish such examples.  One notable difference is that China, in living memory, has never been as domineering as was Russia in Eastern Europe.

In a post-Kim Jong-Il North Korea, will China be the central player that many believe it will be, and how long will this last?