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Kim Jong-Nam to succeed Kim Jong-Il?

August 28th, 2007 · 3 Comments

The most common reason given why Kim Jong-Nam is not favorite to succeed Kim Jong-Il is because of a botched 2001 trip to Disneyland, Japan on a faked Dominican passport. It is argued that this put Kim Jong-Nam out of favor with his father and resulted in a family fracture and Kim Jong-Nam’s exile to southern China.

Let’s face it, the source for this account of events is not 100% reliable. Japanese tabloids do come up with some interesting pieces of information, but relying on them for the question of whether Kim Jong-Nam will succeed his father or not, is stretching the validity. Sure Kim Jong-Nam was arrested, but did he ‘fall out’, or just he just quite naturally go quiet for a while (like any politician in the west would do after a scandal)?

There are much stronger reasons to believe that Kim Jong-Nam will succeed his father. These include:

  • The strong Confucian cultural influence that pervades North Korea. Kim Jong-Nam is the right age to assume a bureaucratic leadership position and also the eldest son;
  • The positioning of Kim Jong-Nam in China - where whoever succeeds Kim Jong-Il will need substantial support. Kim Jong-Nam could have been exiled to one of the several comfortable positions available to the Kim family in Europe. Notable members of the family reside in Vienna and Switzerland. Even worse, he could have been sent to Russia…
  • The positioning of Kim Jong-Nam in Macao and Beijing during significant periods of negotiations between the DPRK and US. While these reports also rely on Japanese tabloids, there were also more credible sources that position him in Macao during the Banco Delta Asia situation; and
  • The threat he presents to any alternative succession plans. As the eldest son and with assumed support networks in China, Kim Jong-Nam would present a very credible threat to any other potential candidates. If another candidate attempts to maneuver into a position to succeed Kim Jong-Il, they will have to engineer the removal of Kim Jong-Nam.

The recent revelations that Kim Jong-Nam has returned to North Korea and has taken up a position in the Central Party’s Organisation and Guidance Department, support these assumptions. The next signs to look for will be:

  • An increasing public role for Kim Jong-Nam;
  • An increase in propaganda supporting political legitimacy of hereditary succession;
  • An increase in propaganda supporting Kim Jong-Nam himself;
  • The assumption of larger roles in the Party and State; and
  • the removal of those in positions that could threaten succession and the promotion of those that can ensure its success.

The timing is right for the choice of a successor. Kim Jong-Il was groomed for succession by his father from the age of 31 (when Kim Il-Sung was 61). Kim Jong-Il is now 63 and Kim Jong-Nam 36. The ball is rolling…

[Update] More discussion over at ROKDrop…

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Tags: DPRK Economy and Politics

3 responses so far ↓

  • 1 Kl52pieter // Aug 28, 2007 at 9:27 am

    A good analysis. But you are forgetting that Kim Jong Il will rule for a long time yet. Many things can happen that could reduce the possibility of Kim Jong Nam suceeding his father.

  • 2 Richardson // Aug 28, 2007 at 9:04 pm

    While I agree that the signs indicate that Kim Jong-nam is indeed being reevaluated for a future leadership role, there is not enough evidence to make a definite conclusion. It should also be noted that such decisions are notoriously reversible in North Korea, often with unpleasant outcomes for those involved.

    Reports indicating the Disneyland fiasco caused his following loss of status may be true or not, but there was in fact a loss in status in the early 2000s not long after that event. The death of his mother, Sung Hye-rim, in 2002 and the loss of her influence in Kim Jong-il is also an important factor, among others.

    The DPRK has changed fundamentally since the famine of the 1990s, Kim Jong-il has lost respect among the people, and I don’t believe that the masses will respond well to a deification campaign for Kim Jong-nam. The political elite likely will support him if they think it will help them maintain their positions in society, as might the military for the same reason. With knowledge of the outside world growing in North Korea, I think the transition won’t be so easy.

  • 3 Dilworth // Aug 29, 2007 at 7:18 am

    All very valid points. I think your point about the elite and the military are most salient. These two political forces will be instrumental to Kim Jong Nam suceeding his father and as you state, they will seek to maintain their position. For them, Kim Jong Nam represents a useful figurehead.

    Actually I think the initial transition will not be so difficult. This can be achieved through (repressive) structures of state that are already in place.

    It will be a short period after transition that a greater change will occur. Inevitably, after a transition there will be a period of time when a relatively greater amount of freedom will be tolerated as it decides upon policy agenda. If the regime does not, does not want to, or cannot act to curtail this, then I believe a significant change will occur.

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