Actually I think the initial transition will not be so difficult. This can be achieved through (repressive) structures of state that are already in place.

It will be a short period after transition that a greater change will occur. Inevitably, after a transition there will be a period of time when a relatively greater amount of freedom will be tolerated as it decides upon policy agenda. If the regime does not, does not want to, or cannot act to curtail this, then I believe a significant change will occur.

Reports indicating the Disneyland fiasco caused his following loss of status may be true or not, but there was in fact a loss in status in the early 2000s not long after that event. The death of his mother, Sung Hye-rim, in 2002 and the loss of her influence in Kim Jong-il is also an important factor, among others.

The DPRK has changed fundamentally since the famine of the 1990s, Kim Jong-il has lost respect among the people, and I don’t believe that the masses will respond well to a deification campaign for Kim Jong-nam. The political elite likely will support him if they think it will help them maintain their positions in society, as might the military for the same reason. With knowledge of the outside world growing in North Korea, I think the transition won’t be so easy.