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Which should be first, ending the Korean War with a Peace Treaty or disarming North Korea’s nuclear programs?
Ask anyone from the US and they will more than likely say that disarming North Korea should be first. North Korea’s nuclear programs are potentially a threat to their interests.
Ask a South Korean and you may well get a different answer. After all, North Korea’s nuclear programs are no more a threat to South Korea than the massed artillery, possibly with chemical and/or biological armaments, that are aimed at Seoul.
So what we have here is firstly a difference in the threat perceptions regarding the North Korean nuclear program…
This difference in threat perceptions has resulted in ongoing difference of opinion and misunderstanding between the US and South Korean administrations for the last five years.
But there is also the question of a difference in attitude towards the Peace Treaty as well. This is where the deepest misunderstandings occur between the US and South Korean public.
Certain elements within the US administration are undoubtedly opposed to a Peace Treaty to end the Korean War. It can be seen in the repeated failures to negotiate a Peace Treaty over the last fifty years. One reason, is the very strong arguments that will follow and peace treaty. Arguments that will all be directed at one thing - the removal of the United States Forces Korea (USFK). While some in the US would welcome the opportunity to remove USFK, there are many that see this as a reduction in US regional influence and not in the interests of the US.
In South Korea however, a Peace Treaty to end the Korean War - is a palpable reduction in security tension. It would feed through to financial markets and risks premiums. It would immediately be felt in a reduction of the war readiness that has held the nation on edge for the last fifty years. It could also even be a first and very necessary step to unification.
Not having a Peace Treaty is one of the key obstacles to Korean unification… end the war first!
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4 responses so far ↓
1 Kimmi // Sep 12, 2007 at 9:00 am
Nice post. I think many Americans may be unhappy with this idea. Was this Hans or Gunther? When is my piece going up?
2 Shane // Sep 13, 2007 at 6:11 am
Agreed, peace is essential. Have you read any drafts of proposed peace treaties from North , South Korea or the US? What would that entail?
3 HansBrix // Sep 13, 2007 at 7:24 am
Hi Shane,
There are no drafts yet, as we are still a long way away from negotiations. However there are many drafts from previous attempts to negotiate an end to the war.
Basically, these drafts have never come close to a final negotiated settlement due to the wide differences between the opposing parties. In fact, so wide are the differences, that most attempts have failed as the two sides cannot agree on who should even participate in negotiations and sign a treaty. The DPRK at times used to insist that only the US participate (not the ROK, China or UN Command).
However, there are hopes that such blatant ‘Cold War’ negotiating excercises are a thing of the past, and it may prove much easier this time round.
4 HansBrix // Sep 13, 2007 at 7:26 am
Shane, by the way - your blog is great. Let me know next time you do anything on unification/North Korea related themes. Thanks,
Hans
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