korean unification studies

After discussions with several North Korea specialists, I have come to agree with their conclusion that the current Six Party Talks are merely a diplomatic game from which North Korea will exact every possible concession, before closing up shop and heading home.

Quite simply, the final goal of the Six Party Talks process, namely complete, verifiable, and irreversible dismantlement (CVID) of North Korean nuclear programs, are not in North Korea’s interests. Arguably, nor are the final rewards of normalised economic relations with the United States and access to international financial assistance, which could weaken the regime’s hold on power. Indeed, the only parts of the deal that are in North Korea’s interests are those rewards that are forward loaded, including fuel and economic aid. Given this fact, there should be an exact point in time before the final goal of CVID at which North Korea will unceremoniously quit the talks… Its all a game…

 If you were North Korea, and you knew you would never give up your nuclear capability or allow your people greater access to foreign information, where would you stop?

1. After receiving your USD 25 million illicit funds from a frozen bank account in Macao.
2. After receiving fuel aid from each of the Six Party Talks participants.
3. After receiving financial aid.
4. After settling the Korean War peace treaty question, normalizing relations with the US, and being removed from the US State Sponsors of Terrorism list.
5. After normalizing relations with Japan and receiving a financial package of more than USD 12 billion.

Finally, given that you know the Six Party Talks must end before you give up your nuclear weapons, how would you stage the walk out to make it look like the whole fiasco was because of the US?

1. Denounce hostile US policy and its insincerity
2. Wait until a new administration is in Washington, maximise any gains you can get off them, and then denounce hostile US policy and its insincerity.
3. Start a firefight along the DMZ or in the West Sea
4. Perform an asymmetric breakout (that is get caught proliferating, having a new nuclear program or any other various nefarious activities)
5. Any combination of the above