korean unification studies

There have been several border skirmishes recently that have gone largely unnoticed by the international media.

The first was “likely an accident” along the border, when a North Korean guard post fired at a South Korean guard post. The South Korean side fired back two rounds.

More recently, South Korean patrol vessels have on two occasions sought to deter North Korean vessels from intruding beyond the Northern Limit Line (NLL). The areas around the NLL are rich fishing grounds and it is crab fishing season.

It may be that on both sides tension is high. In the North tension is high due to succession and in the South tension is high due to the hosting of the G20. During periods of tension, accidents do happen.

However, there is also the more remote possibility that the North is testing the waters for a more attention grabbing incident during the South’s hosting of the G20 Leaders Summit. Certain analysts have stated this is unlikely due to China’s presence at the G20 Leaders Summit. Accordingly, an incident immediately prior to the Summit seems to fit these views.

Will there be an attention grabbing incident between North and South around the G20?